Occasionally, I get asked for my predictions for the upcoming year. I usually try to dodge doing that because forecasting the future is hard work and I'd just be embarrassingly wrong. But I do have one prediction: Brazil will win the soccer World Cup!
You see, Brazilians like soccer, there are a lot of them, and the 2014 World Cup will be held in Brazil. Another forecast: If Brazil doesn't win, maybe Argentina will. Why? Argentina is near Brazil and Argentina even has a player whose name I know.
Unfortunately, people aren't really interested in that kind of prediction because it has already been done, as shown by the odds:
Latest 2014 World Cup Odds
 |  |  |  |  |  |  | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brazil | 10/3 | 10/3 | 3/1 | 3/1 | 10/3 | 11/4 | 3/1 |
| Argentina | 9/2 | 5/1 | 9/2 | 5/1 | 5/1 | 9/2 | 5/1 |
| Germany | 11/2 | 11/2 | 11/2 | 11/2 | 5/1 | 11/2 | 6/1 |
| Spain | 11/2 | 7/1 | 7/1 | 7/1 | 5/1 | 6/1 | 7/1 |
| Belgium | 14/1 | 14/1 | 14/1 | 16/1 | 14/1 | 14/1 | 14/1 |
| Colombia | 20/1 | 22/1 | 20/1 | 20/1 | 18/1 | 16/1 | 22/1 |
| France | 20/1 | 20/1 | 16/1 | 22/1 | 16/1 | 20/1 | 18/1 |
| Holland | 18/1 | 22/1 | 28/1 | 25/1 | 20/1 | 20/1 | 28/1 |
| Uruguay | 25/1 | 25/1 | 25/1 | 28/1 | 20/1 | 33/1 | 28/1 |
| Italy | 25/1 | 22/1 | 28/1 | 28/1 | 20/1 | 33/1 | 33/1 |
| England | 33/1 | 25/1 | 33/1 | 33/1 | 20/1 | 33/1 | 28/1 |
Brazil are the early market leaders in the betting for the 2014 World Cup, for which they are hosts. Current World and European Champions, Argentina are second favourites ahead of Germany and holders Spain. The Netherlands, Italy and England were all handed tough draws and have drifted in the betting as a result, whilst favourable draws for Argentina, Belgium and Colombia saw them all shorten.
Seriously, the home hemisphere advantage appears to be a big deal in the World Cup: South American countries have won all seven World Cups played in the Americas and European countries have won 9 out of 10 World Cups played in Europe. (The two continental powers have split the World Cups played in South Africa and Japan/South Korea.)
Is it the fans cheering? Jet lag? Players getting out of shape during long steamship cruises? Early evenings under the watchful eye of the missus? Or just random luck? Does anybody know if this pattern that goes back to 1930 ought to continue?