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| EPA graph of blood lead levels near Smelterville, ID |
An economist named Rick Nevin has been promoting for a number of years the theory that rises and falls in the crime rate are closely tied to lead pollution. In a 2007 post entitled "Lead Poisoning and the Great 1960s Freakout," I looked at the evidence and found it mixed (why, for example, didn't Japan have any substantial loosening of social order?) but intriguing. Blogger Kevin Drum has taken up pushing the theory. (I responded here.)
My suggestion, both from the perspective of disinterested research and as a PR strategy, has been for Drum to focus upon specific locations that were severely polluted by lead due to mining, industry, or dumping. The EPA maintains a handy list of some of the worst lead pollution Superfund sites. What has happened to crime rates in these locales over time? For instance, correlate the EPA graph above with crime rates in Smelterville and see what you get.
To give a literary example, the single most insanely violent novel I've ever read is Dashiell Hammett's Red Harvest, which is based upon his experiences as a Pinkerton man in Butte, Montana, a center of violent strikes and repression. Butte was the biggest, most polluted mining town in the United States, with substantial lead and gigantic copper mining activities right in the middle of town. Did metal poisoning contribute to the craziness of action described in Hammett's book?
On the other hand, my Uncle Al, an accountant, was born in Butte 90 years ago, and has been just about the sanest guy I've known.
I've tried reading up on lawsuits by residents of lead towns against the big polluters, and crime doesn't seem to come up much in the testimony. Typically, the plaintiffs argue that the energy levels of themselves and their children are depressed.
So, I remain uncertain. But, my point is that there is much data available that nobody seems to have studied carefully.
P.S., An Economist notes:
P.S., An Economist notes:
Butte was primarily a copper mine. Lead was produced. However, copper and zinc were the primary products. The dominant ore in Butte as copper porphyry. By contrast, the ore processed at Bunker Hill was quite different. From Wikipedia (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Silver_Valley,_Idaho)
“Although miners were originally lured to the general area by the promise of gold, the primary metals mined in the valley were silver, zinc, and lead. The total quantities produced are impressive: over a billion ounces of silver, 3 million tons of zinc, and 8 million tons of lead, totalling over $6 billion in value, ranking the valley among the top ten mining districts in world history. During the 1970s, nearly half of the nation's silver production came from the Silver Valley.”
The bolding is mine. The Bunker Hill ores were not copper porphyry, but Lead-Zinc-Silver. Of course, these ores produce far more lead than those found around Butte.
Modern reports do not show high blood lead levels in the Butte area. See http://books.google.com/books?id=Wb4Du3C_elkC&pg=PA312&lpg=PA312&dq=butte+montana+blood+lead+levels&source=bl&ots=pFEb9eN7lC&sig=KfTTyHvOeSBFeLss5FOb9rfwlUA&hl=en&sa=X&ei=583xUq-1D4KiyAGyyIHoAw&ved=0CEEQ6AEwAw#v=onepage&q=butte%20montana%20blood%20lead%20levels&f=false for one source.
An image from the book follows.
As you see, children in Butte had blood lead levels well below the national average back then. The advantages of a relatively rural location far more than offset lead soil contamination in the area. Note that this was not true near Bunker Hill in the 1970s. See http://books.google.com/books?id=y82Mn6XRJJUC&pg=PT433&lpg=PT433&dq=butte+montana+blood+lead+levels&source=bl&ots=x_EtSEmIA-&sig=E16W-jxhzGaBFaXp9SZYju46SEQ&hl=en&sa=X&ei=583xUq-1D4KiyAGyyIHoAw&ved=0CE0Q6AEwBg#v=onepage&q=butte%20montana%20blood%20lead%20levels&f=false
An image from the book follows.
All of these sources suggest that smelters are (were) the predominant source of mining related lead ingestion. Given that smelters produce airborne lead (somewhat like tailpipe emissions from leaded gasoline) this shouldn’t be too surprising.
Butte did mine some lead and smelters operated in the Butte area for decades. It’s impossible to easily guess blood lead levels in Butte in 1900 or 1920 at this point in time. Digging up skeletons and testing old bones would work, but probably isn’t going to happen.
However, the Bunker Hill smelter complex processed ores much richer in lead and is well documented to have contributed to lead-poisoning (elevated BLLs) in the area well into our own time.
The bottom line is that if you are looking for a BLL – violence linkage, Bunker Hill is more likely to yield results than Butte.
Thank you
An Economist
P.S. Lead smelters have operated in other parts of the United States, notably Missouri.